Climate Change and Your Garden: What will Survive in 2050?

With hotter summers, more erratic storms and shifting seasons, the plants that thrived in our gardens a generation ago may struggle by 2050. However, by making careful design changes, smarter plant choices and simple soil and water management, gardens can become far more resilient while still looking beautiful.

In this article, we look at what horticultural experts are recommending and highlight gardens already experimenting with a new approach. We also list ten plants likely to cope well in UK conditions by 2050 and give practical gardening tips to counter our changing climate.

How gardens are affected by changing weather patterns

Climate models for the UK point to hotter, drier summers and milder, wetter winters in many regions, with more extreme events such as very intense rainstorms and occasional heatwaves. This mix of drought punctuated by heavy downpours puts traditional planting schemes under stress.

The Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew, assessed the scale of the problem in its `Planting for the Future’ report (July 2024) which revealed that over 50% of Kew’s 11,000 trees could be at risk by 2090 due to climate change. The report urged horticulturalists to plant for resilience nationally, using a greater diversity of trees and shrubs: particular UK species at risk include oak, beech and holly.

The Royal Horticultural Society (RHS) has been encouraging gardeners to build resilience by planting a diverse range of plants so that if some species decline in extreme seasons, others will do better.

Gardens that are already future proofing

A growing number of botanic gardens, estates and show gardens are working on their resilience for the next 25-30 years.

• Kew’s “Carbon Garden” features Mediterranean and South African plants, resilient tree species and design features such as swales – shallow channels to take heavy rain and to harvest water, helping in both drought and downpours.
• The Hampton Court Palace Flower Show regularly showcases “garden of the future” exhibits aimed at achieving sustainability and biodiversity. The initiative aims to inspire homeowners to adopt similar ideas at smaller scale.
• Recent restorations, for example, the Long Garden at Cliveden in Berkshire, have swapped high-input annual bedding for perennial, structural, and pollinator-friendly planting; a lower-maintenance approach that copes better with erratic weather.

Why some plants will thrive while others struggle

Plants that are likely to do well under future British summers tend to share some traits:

• Drought tolerance once established: plants with deep roots, leathery leaves, or succulents.
• Plants that can delay or accelerate growth depending on moisture and temperature.
• Ability to cope with waterlogging for short periods: a necessary trait where intense rain might saturate soils after a drought.
• Pest and disease resilience: warmer winters can increase some pests and microbe pressures.

Plants that struggle are often those bred for cool, damp summers, for example many double flowers like old-style delphiniums or moisture-loving lawns, or shallow-rooted ornamentals that cannot reach deeper reserves during heat spells.

Top 10 climate-proof plants for UK gardens to 2050

Based on RHS guidance, Kew experiments and UK horticultural surveys, here are 10 dependable choices that combine ornamental value with resilience. All these drought-tolerant plants are widely available and suitable for many UK gardens, depending on local soils and aspect.

• Lavender (Lavandula): this classic drought-tolerant plant is nectar-rich and excellent for pollinators.
• California lilac (Ceanothus): evergreen, early-flowering and drought-resistant in sheltered spots.
• Coneflower (Echinacea): tough perennial, summer-long nectar, copes with dry spells.
• Euphorbia (Euphorbia characias): architectural, long season, tolerates drought and poor soils.
• Rock Rose (Cistus): Mediterranean native shrub that handles heat and drought; great in poor soils. 
•  Sedum (Hylotelephium): succulent perennials that survive dry spells; good for containers and green roofs.
• Russian sage (Perovskia):  aromatic, silvery foliage, long flowering, drought tolerant.
• African lily (Agapanthus): summer-flowering bulb that performs well in warmer summers and sheltered positions in many parts of the UK.
• Salvia species (nemorosa, sylvestris): many salvias are heat-tolerant, nectar-rich and long-flowering.
• Jerusalem sage (Phlomis fruticose): evergreen, architectural shrub suited to hot, dry sites and is also wildlife friendly. 

Drought-tolerant tree varieties:

Consider species that tolerate a Mediterranean climate, such as field maple, Persian ironwood and ginkgo. Kew notes that some oaks should survive well under certain scenarios, but advise choosing trees with local provenance and checking soil suitability.

Practical design matters as well as perfect plant lists

While plant choice is crucial, design and soil are equally important. A few practical measures convert an ordinary plot into a climate-resilient one:

• Improve soil structure and organic matter. Healthy soils absorb more water in heavy rain and retain moisture in dry spells. Tips from the RHS include using plants with low moisture and maintenance needs, often from Mediterranean countries, and incorporating large amounts of organic matter to improve soil structure and water retention.
• Build to retain water – and allow it to drain away. Swales, rain gardens and permeable paving capture sudden heavy rain and feed it into borders rather than the drains.
• Use layered planting and structural diversity. Trees, shrubs and perennials create shade, reduce soil temperatures and shelter vulnerable plants. According to RHS resilience principles, diverse layers help wildlife and spread risk if one plant group fails.
• Mulch and reduce evaporation. Mulching reduces surface evaporation and suppresses weed competition for water.
• Match plants to microclimates. Make the best use of north-facing corners, low spots and sheltered walls which all have different exposure to light and warmth.
• Reduce high-maintenance bedding and lawn where possible. Lawns demand water; swapping areas of mowing for mixed perennials, clover lawn or native grass helps biodiversity and drought resilience.

Worldwide lessons for UK gardens

Many garden researchers are already learning from countries with hotter, drier summers.

• Mediterranean gardens in Spain and southern France demonstrate how gravel beds, Mediterranean shrubs and seasonal water harvesting can be both beautiful and low input. Kew has introduced Mediterranean species in its dry garden to assess which options work well in the UK climate.
• California public gardens use native, drought-tolerant species and efficient drip irrigation for key specimens. The principles used, such as good mulch, soil improvement, and appropriate plant choice, can be applied in the UK, particularly in southern and coastal regions. The `Garden of the Future’, supported by the Gates Foundation and exhibited at the 2025 RHS Chelsea Flower Show, demonstrated what is possible when people work together to  counter the challenge of climate change.
• Botanic garden experimentation: botanic gardens across the UK give gardeners access to regionally tested lists and the evidence base for what works. For example, the Cambridge University Botanic Garden team is working on the challenge of predicting which plants will cope best with climate change challenges.

What gardeners should start doing today

1. Assess your soil and add organic matter. Compost is the best insurance against climate change.
2. Reduce lawned areas and replace with diverse, nectar-rich planting. This helps wildlife and reduces water use.
3. Plant new perennials and shrubs from the resilient list above and let them establish before the first real drought hits.
4. Instal simple water-harvesting: a water butt, a swale, or even a rain garden.
5. Join citizen science projects such as RHS surveys to learn from gardeners’ experiences, with the aim of building a national picture of successes and failures. Sharing local data can help formulate regional plant advice.

Gardens can evolve and still be beautiful

Gardeners have a unique opportunity to create climate tolerant gardens to suit their own tastes. They can experiment with resilient planting, whether in a suburban garden, a courtyard space or a window box.

The science is clear: diversity, good soils, smart water design and the right plants make a huge difference. As Kew and the RHS are showing in their research gardens, the 2050 garden need not be a sterile rock garden – it can still be beautiful, full of flowers to attract pollinators, but it will look and feel a little different, and that change offers opportunities.